This afternoon, the Huawei Developers Conference officially began. Huawei’s consumer business CEO and Managing Director of Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. Yu Chengdong came to the stage to bring you the keynote speech of “Full-Site Wisdom to Meet the Historic Opportunities of the Industry” and officially released Huawei Hongmeng OS. It is a full-scale distributed OS based on microkernel.
Yu Chengdong mentioned that the Android or Linux kernel code is hugely redundant, and it is difficult to ensure the smoothness of different terminal experiences. Moreover, the emergence of a variety of terminal interconnections puts higher requirements on device security; software ecology and hardware binding, reducing user experience and development efficiency.
“Multi-device and multi-scenarios for the future should be microkernels.” Yu Chengdong believes, “So, today we have a micro-kernel-based full-distribution distributed OS. We are not only microkernel but also full-scenario, distributed. of.”
It is understood that Hongmeng OS has four technical characteristics.
First, the distributed architecture is used for the first time in the terminal OS to achieve a seamless collaborative experience across terminals.
Hongmeng OS’s “distributed OS architecture” and “distributed soft bus technology” through the public communication platform, distributed data management, distributed capability scheduling and virtual peripherals four capabilities, the corresponding distributed application of the underlying technology to achieve the difficulty Application developer shielding enables developers to focus on their own business logic, develop cross-terminal distributed applications like the same terminal, and enable end consumers to enjoy a powerful cross-terminal business collaboration capability for seamless use of various scenarios. .
According to Yu Chengdong, Hongmeng OS is a full-scale distributed OS based on microkernel. Can open smart screens, wearable devices, car machines, audio, mobile phones and other multi-terminals. In terms of security, the microkernel naturally has no root, and fine-grained permission control improves system security from the source.
Second, determine the latency engine and high-performance IPC technology to achieve smooth system.
Hongmeng OS solves the problem of insufficient performance of existing systems by using two techniques: determining the delay engine and high-performance IPC. It is determined that the delay engine can allocate the task execution priority and time limit in the system before the task is executed, and the task resources with higher priority will be preferentially guaranteed to be scheduled, and the application response delay is reduced by 25.7%. The compact nature of the Hongmeng microkernel enables IPC (interprocess communication) performance to be greatly improved, and the process communication efficiency is increased by 5 times compared with the existing system.
Third, re-engineer terminal device trusted security based on microkernel architecture.
Hongmeng OS adopts a new micro-core design with stronger security features and low latency. The basic idea of microkernel design is to simplify kernel functions, implement user services as much as possible outside the kernel, and add security protection to each other. The microkernel only provides the most basic services, such as multi-process scheduling and multi-process communication. In addition, Hongmeng OS applies microkernel technology to the Trusted Execution Environment (TEE) to reshape trusted security through formal methods.
Fourth, through unified IDE support for one development, multi-end deployment, to achieve cross-terminal ecological sharing.
Hongmeng OS develops IDE with multi-terminal, multi-language unified compilation, distributed architecture Kit provides screen layout control and automatic adaptation of interaction, supports control drag and drop, and visual programming for preview, so that developers can build multi-end efficiently based on the same project. Automatically run the App to achieve a true development, multi-end deployment, and a shared ecosystem across devices.
In addition, the Hongmeng OS kernel retains the Linux kernel and LiteOS, Yu Chengdong said, hoping that the future Hongmeng kernel can replace all other cores.
Yu Chengdong announced the history and roadmap of Huawei Hongmeng OS at the press conference. In 2019, Hongmeng OS 1.0 was released. Based on the open source architecture, the key modules were self-developed and used on the smart screen. In 2020, Hongmeng OS 2.0 will be released, and the kernel and application framework will be self-developed. It is suitable for innovative domestic PCs, watches, bracelets and car machines. In 2021, Hongmeng OS 3.0 will support software and hardware coordination for speakers and headphones. It will be used after 2022. Equipment such as VR glasses.
Finally, Yu Chengdong emphasized that this is the world’s first microkernel distributed operating system. Yu Chengdong said that companies such as Google and Apple are committed to developing new OS, but still face difficulties and bottlenecks. Google’s ecological division, Apple’s ecological closure, and Huawei to do future-oriented OS, multi-terminal capabilities to share, each other as peripherals.
After more than four months of grounding, Boeing 737Max is expected to “return” in the fourth quarter.
After the release of the second quarter earnings on July 24, US time, Boeing CEO Dennis Millenberg said in a conference call that they will submit a final software upgrade package to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in September. The flight order is expected to be lifted in October at the earliest.
The software upgrade package is mainly to solve the MCAS anti-stall system triggered by the 737Max model during the flight, when the angle of attack sensor reads the wrong data. This problem is considered to be the main reason for the 346 people who are embarrassed by the Ethiopian aviation and the lion aviation.
After the Ethiopian aviation crash in March, the 737Max was banned globally, Boeing had to announce a reduction in production, from 52 to 42 per month, and was suspended from delivery to customers. The suspension of delivery is particularly damaging to the company, which means that every time Boeing produces a 737Max, it will not only create any revenue for the company, but will engulf the company’s cash flow.
According to data released by Boeing, the company’s operating cash flow in the second quarter was -590 million US dollars. In addition, Boeing lost $2.942 billion in the second quarter. The loss of a commercial aircraft unit alone was close to $5 billion. For any company, this is an astronomical figure.
After two air crashes, Boeing was accused of playing “athletes and referees” in the aircraft certification process. Even if the FAA issued a “passing order” for the 737Max, the embarrassing relationship between Boeing and the FAA may be Regulators in other countries are more cautious about the return of Max. A series of issues will follow, such as the backlog of inventory, the stability of the supply chain, the huge claims of airlines, the prosecution of families of victims of disasters, and the class actions of investors and pilots. Boeing’s hardships have just begun.
Boeing’s old rival Airbus has already “preemptively established”, and the global aircraft manufacturing pattern is on the eve of dramatic changes.
$21.6 billion in order loss
Boeing’s second-quarter loss reached $2.942 billion, the highest in a single season, due to the 737Max ground-off resulting in a drop in delivery, coupled with reduced orders and increased production costs due to reduced production.
Boeing’s last quarterly loss dates back to 2009 during the financial crisis. Specifically, Boeing’s second-quarter revenue was $15.751 billion, down 35% year-on-year. Among them, 737Max’s commercial aircraft division’s revenue was $4.722 billion, a sharp drop of 66% year-on-year. 4.946 billion US dollars, close to half of Boeing’s 2018 net profit. Boeing’s revenue in 2018 was 101.1 billion US dollars, and its net profit was 10.66 billion yuan.
Boeing delivered only 90 aircraft throughout the second quarter. Under the influence of Max’s grounding, Boeing received zero new orders in April and May. Not only that, according to data released by Boeing, as of the second quarter of this year, the Boeing 737 series has a net order quantity of -180, of which 85 are due to “contract changes” (model changes or order cancellation), in addition to 131 Although the order is available, the possibility of implementation is not significant. If the Boeing 737Max8 catalogue price is $120 million, the value of these lost order catalogs is $21.6 billion.
The 737Max is more than one day off, and the risk of customers returning is one more point. In July 2019, Flyadeal in Saudi Arabia announced that it would abandon 50 orders, worth 5.9 billion US dollars 737 Max, and then buy 50 A320neo series (including 20 intention orders) from Airbus, and the fastest can be 2021 Annual delivery. The Boeing 737Max and the Airbus A320 are two tit-for-tat products.
Although Boeing is still in the shadow of the 737Max flight, it is always believed that the possibility of large-scale cancellation of orders by customers is minimal. On the one hand, Boeing’s position in the aircraft manufacturing industry, on the other hand, the order of the Airbus A320 family has been ranked. By 2024, airlines have little to switch to Airbus, but Flyadeal’s move proves that switching to Airbus is also a viable option.
In addition to Flyadeal, Indonesia’s Eagle Airlines and Lion Air’s total of 236 737 series orders are currently being cancelled. On October 29, 2018, a 737Max with 189 people in Lion Air crashed shortly after the plane, and there was no life on board.
How to compensate for the loss of the airline
Before the official release of the earnings report, Boeing announced a one-time tax 4.9 billion US dollars after the tax, this expense is due to “737Max’s long-term grounding and delivery delays, resulting in potential concessions and other considerations for customers.”
Before the final result of the air crash investigation, Boeing was not willing to admit that there was a problem with its design and production. Although the one-time provision was mainly used to pay the airlines, Boeing did not explicitly state that this was “compensation” in the earnings report, but instead chose the more neutral word “concessions”.
Richard Aboulafia, vice president of the international aviation consultancy Teal Group, told that “concession” may include discounts on future aircraft purchases, discounts on maintenance packages, or other forms of compensation. The specific compensation depends on airline negotiations. ability. 376 737Maxs have been grounded to date, and 96 of them are operated by Chinese airlines.
Stopping means that these aircraft cannot generate revenue and profits for the company, but fixed costs and amortization are unavoidable, such as rent, parking and maintenance fees, pilot salaries, and so on. What is the standard of compensation? Take a 737Max8 with a capacity of 180 passengers as an example.
Suppose the aircraft can fly 4 flights per day (equivalent to two round trips), each flight segment is 1000 kilometers, and the average attendance rate is 80%. The average passenger kilometer gain is about 0.5 yuan, and the potential loss of one day of conservative flight is estimated to be 230,000 yuan.
The China Civil Aviation Transportation Association issued a statement on May 24, 2019 to support Chinese airlines in claiming Boeing, and stated that according to the original introduction plan, Chinese airlines planned to introduce more than 130 737Max in 2019. “According to the calculation, if the 737Max8 is grounded until the end of June, it is estimated that the Chinese airline has delivered and will pay the aircraft for a total loss of about 4 billion yuan.
With the passage of time, the related losses will be further expanded,” the statement said. Take Xiamen Airlines, a full Boeing fleet, as an example. By the end of 2018, the company had a fleet of 210 aircraft with a revenue of 30.22 billion yuan.
Roughly calculated, an aircraft can generate an annual income of 143 million yuan, an average of 394,000 yuan per day. American airlines are also losing a lot. For example, Southwest Airlines, which currently has the largest number of 737Max, has temporarily suspended 31 new aircraft in aircraft cemeteries in the desert, while suspending the recruitment of pilots and withdrawing operations from some airports.
According to the latest statement from Southwest Airlines, flights operated by 737Max will be postponed until January 5, 2020. In addition, due to the 737Max grounding, American Airlines said that it would cancel 115 flights a day, resulting in an increase of 175 million and 125 million US dollars in operating costs in the second and third quarters. United announced in July that due to the delay in the go-around, it will be forced to cancel more than 8,000 flights in October.
United’s CEO also said in May this year that it would ask Boeing for “a certain form of compensation.” However, according to past experience, the details of the “claims” between the aircraft manufacturer and the customer will not be announced. “Considering Boeing’s size and financial strength, the current losses are controllable, but this is not the final number. The whole thing may cost Boeing $10 to $15 billion,” Richard said .
The greater risk is the order delivery
The Boeing 737Max is an upgraded version of the Boeing 737NG series. Since its launch, it has been enthusiastically sought after by airlines. It was officially delivered in May 2017. Shortly afterwards, the production speed of the 737 family increased from 42 to 47, and in 2018 it continued to increase to 52.
If it wasn’t for the air crash, the 737Max was originally planned to increase to 57 aircraft per month around June 2019. According to the latest data, as of the end of June, Boeing has 4,547 737Max waiting to be delivered.
Even at 57 production speeds per month, all of these aircraft are delivered to customers at least until around 2025, while Ethiopian Airlines The occurrence of air crashes disrupted Boeing’s original production plan.
After the air crash, Boeing quickly decided to reduce production, from 52 to 42 per month, thus ensuring the stability of the supply chain. Boeing originally thought that Max would soon go around, but it mistakenly judged the situation. Severe.
Although Boeing shouted the slogan of reducing production, he actually made two preparations. Spirit AeroSystem, which is responsible for producing the fuselage for the Boeing 737Max, reached a understanding agreement with Boeing in April. Both parties agreed that Spirit will still supply parts to Boeing at 52 frames per month, and Boeing will be the extra parts. Pay the due fee.
As the FAA investigation continued to deepen and the go-around time was postponed again, Boeing had to re-state its position. Boeing CEO Mirenberg said in a conference call that if the no-fly order continues, Boeing will consider continuing to cut production or temporarily stop production of this best-selling model.
“Boeing has made suppliers more productive because it hopes to increase production capacity after Max’s go-around, reaching 57 units per month, but if the 737MAX is discontinued, it will completely disrupt Boeing’s plans.” American Airlines analyst Alex Lee said.
The 737Max is a strong player in the Boeing product family and contributes roughly one-third of the company’s revenue. In the case of undeliverable, the production speed of 42 aircraft per month is already insistent on Boeing, and as the go-around time is delayed, paying for extra parts will only make Boeing’s tight cash flow stretched. According to figures released by Boeing, Boeing’s operating cash flow in the second quarter was -$5.9 billion, compared to $4.68 billion in the same period in 2018.
In the past, due to the suspension of delivery, analysts have been staring at Boeing’s cash flow statement, because the suspension of delivery means no income. To ensure ample cash flow, Boeing issued a $3.5 billion bond in April. As of the first half of the year, the cash on Boeing’s account reached $9.2 billion, an increase of $2.4 billion from the first quarter.
“If Boeing can go off at the end of the year or early next year, Boeing may be able to weather the cash crisis, but if the no-fly time exceeds expectations, Boeing has to save money by cutting production or simply shutting down production, then Boeing’s suppliers may lay off employees, or find ways to digest production costs in the face of sharp revenue declines,” Alex said.
The bigger problem is delivery. According to the current production speed of 42 aircraft per month, if the Boeing 737Max starts a go-around at the beginning of next year, then Boeing’s inventory will have a backlog of more than 400 737Max stocks. How to deliver these aircraft to customers will determine Boeing’s When is the business on the right track?
“Either Boeing or airlines, their manpower is limited. Before the crash, Boeing can deliver about 1.7 737 series every day. If the efficiency doubles to 3 per day, Boeing will take at least 4 months to digest. Finish these stocks,” Alex said.
Boeing wants to deliver the aircraft to its customers as quickly as possible, and it also needs to cross the “training”. When Boeing was selling 737Max to airlines, one of the big selling points was that it didn’t require the pilot to receive too much extra training, so it could save costs, but when Ethiopia’s aviation was hard to come by, people found Boeing’s flight manual. There is no detailed explanation of a key software (Automatic Stall Prevention System, MCAS for short).
The two air crashes caused the outside world to re-evaluate the necessity of training, especially in the actual operation of the simulator. At present, the US FAA does not specify the specific training requirements, but if the simulator training is a resurrection premise, consider With a huge number of pilots and a limited 737Max simulator (as long as Air Canada has in North America), the 737Max’s go-around time will undoubtedly be postponed.
Airbus sits on the “global first”
Throughout the first half of the year, Boeing delivered only 239 aircraft, a total of 150 fewer than Airbus, which means that the sound of the sound will be the “world’s largest aircraft manufacturer” throne for eight years to give to the European aircraft manufacturing giant Airbus.
The Paris Air Show that just passed, even became the “one-man show” of Airbus. The “star” at the show is undoubtedly Airbus’s latest A321XLR, which is currently the largest member of the A320 family. It is also the largest model in the single-channel market, with a range of 4,700 nautical miles (about 8,700 km). 244 passengers.
In addition, it can easily fly to the Atlantic Ocean, flying between India and Europe, China and Australia on the medium and long-range international routes, the aircraft will be delivered as early as 2023. “Airbus preemptive strikes.” Alex said.
Boeing has proposed the concept of “New Midsize Aircraft” for at least five years, but has never made up its mind. The industry calls the new model “797.” Unlike the Airbus A321XLR, NMA/ The 797 will be a two-lane aircraft with higher number of seats and flight mileage than the former.
The specific product configuration and technical parameters have not been announced. “In the middle market, Airbus is far ahead. The problem with the Boeing NMA is that it is a two-lane aircraft, and it is unclear how it can effectively compete with Airbus’ single-aisle aircraft in terms of production costs and operational economics. Richard said.
Richard believes that in addition to competing with the A320 family, Boeing may hope that NMA can gain market share in some wide-body aircraft, but how to prove the market opportunity for 225-265 seats to airlines.
In addition, the NMA may form a certain competitive relationship with the Boeing 787, and Boeing has always wanted to stabilize the production of the 787 at 14 aircraft per month, maintaining a high gross profit margin. Before the launch of the NMA, the emergence of the A321XLR It will continue to expand Airbus’s leading position in the single-channel segment.
As of the end of June, the Airbus A320neo and A321neo have received a total of 6,600 orders, of which 5,371 were not delivered, compared to the Boeing 737Max reserve.
The order is 4415. In the past, due to technical limitations, long-haul international routes must be carried by wide-body aircraft, but Airbus launched the A321XLR to increase the flight range of single-aisle aircraft to nearly 9,000 kilometers, compared to the 737Max series.
The longest Max8 can only fly 6570 kilometers at a time, which is more than 2,000 kilometers less than Airbus. As a result, the airline’s choice can be more flexible, it can operate. Point direct flight, without worrying about the cost and attendance of operating wide-body machines.
At the Paris Air Show, Airbus’ A321XLR took 249 orders (including intent orders) from more than a dozen customers around the world. Boeing was given a “down”. For aircraft manufacturers, the introduction of a new model requires careful consideration. The most important thing is to judge the future market demand.
If you make a serious mistake, you will face the same as the Airbus A380. The huge loss of production will even push the company to the edge of danger.
From Boeing’s current product structure analysis, the best-selling 737Max8 can currently accommodate up to 210 people, while the Boeing 787-8 and -9 two-cabin layouts can be With 240 people and 290 people, there is still a certain market gap in the middle.
According to Boeing’s forecast, the market size of this blank market will be over 4,000 in the next 20 years. In the “middle market”, Boeing’s products launched in the past are 757 and 767.
However, these two models have been discontinued (the freight version of the 767 is still in production), leaving a small market gap. It is solely for Delta Airline. s) For example, as of the first half of the year, the number of Boeing 757 and 767 under Delta has reached 184, and the average age is about 20 years, which is close to retirement.
This is the future of Boeing and Airbus. At the beginning of this year, Boeing CEO Milenberg said that they will decide whether to officially launch this new model this year, but because of the influence of 737Max, they have no time to take care of others.
At the Paris Air Show On the other hand, he said that the company is still evaluating this model. Eight years ago, Airbus launched the A320neo series and Boeing was caught off guard, forcing Boeing to rush to launch the 737Max project.
Now Airbus launched the A321XLR not only for the purpose of A bigger ambition than MAX is probably to attract more customers and threaten the Boeing-led, higher-margin wide-body market.
“The A321XLR has a far more profound impact on Boeing than the 737Max’s grounding,” Alex said. Airbus has already played, Boeing needs to decide “follow it”, this answer can only be revealed after the 737Max resurrection.